The International Monetary Fund raised the stakes in Davos. The global economy will grow 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, according to updated projections presented at the World Economic Forum. The figure represents a 0.2 percentage point upward revision from October, but it hides a paradox: economic resilience coexists with geopolitical tensions more aggressive than at any point since the Cold War.

The world economy surprised by withstanding a brutal 2025: persistent inflation, war in Ukraine, energy crisis, trade tariffs. Against all odds, the system held. The main reason is as simple as it is unpredictable: massive investment in artificial intelligence. The United States leads with projected growth of 2.4%, driven by spending on data centers, semiconductors, and AI model development. China maintains 4.5%, Spain 2.3%. The "technological gold rush" sustains markets and employment in advanced sectors.

Kristalina Georgieva, IMF Managing Director, warned that "we live in a world of increasingly frequent exogenous shocks" and that "they will keep coming." The problem isn't just geopolitical. Global public debt has reached unsustainable levels after years of pandemic stimulus. Governments have limited room to maneuver in responding to future crises. And AI-driven automation promises productivity but also massive labor disruptions: the IMF estimates that 40% of global jobs will be affected, a figure that rises to 60% in advanced economies.

Global inflation will decline from an estimated 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026, according to the IMF. Projections maintain cautious optimism, but 53% of economists surveyed in Davos expect short-term economic weakening. The question nobody wants to ask out loud: what happens when the AI investment bubble deflates and geopolitical reality strikes again without a fiscal safety net?